Tuesday, July 8, 2014

The 4-Hour Workweek - a few quick thoughts

Tim Ferriss' The 4 Hour Work Week was first published back in 2007, so I'm a little late to the array of reviews, criticism, and resolving to "escape 9-5, live anywhere, and join the new rich." However, I did find the book enjoyable and would like to offer a few brief thoughts on some major themes people could take away from the self-help text (if not entirely persuaded to DEAL).

1) Our fears generally hold us back from trying new things that might actually be life altering. The  true worst case scenario is probably only a fraction as bad as we imagine.

2) We spend a lot of time unnecessarily making work to "feel busy."  Emails, meetings, and phone calls can be condensed or scheduled more efficiently so we can spend less time in the office and more time doing other things we enjoy. Being productive is different than being active.

3) Life is not a waiting room; retirement shouldn't be the time we solely look forward to for pursuing pleasures ("mini-vacations").

4) Technology is making it easier to be more mobile, so those who are more daring can actually explore the world on a budget. 

Thursday, June 26, 2014

How to skip work to watch the USA-Germany game

Not condoning any illicit activities...but this was a fun read from WSJ.

Also of potential use for USMNT fans:

                                                         via Twitter

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Another charge against Uber, courtesy of les Republique Francais

We know France has a troubled history with Uber - and things haven't cooled down.
Cab drivers opposed to Uber made another stand against the ride-sharing service, and in traditional French fashion, named their operation after what? Food. Of course. The dubbed "escargot operation" plans to create an embargo of Paris's city center via cab drivers operating at essentially a snail's pace on the highways surrounding the city.

It is interesting that the consistently "evolving" French Republic continues to find ways to stifle innovation and crowd out investors, even when opportunities for growth come knocking on its door (or cruising up to its driveway).

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

A few more World Cup charts...

It's always a great surprise when I meet someone I can talk soccer with here in America - whether the conversation involves my love for Arsenal, interest in Financial Fair Play, or development programs in the States - it doesn't matter. Regardless of the topic, it beats being called a socialist for loving the beautiful game (Jerry, take note). With the opening day of the World Cup tomorrow (arguably the most important day of every four year period), I thought it might be fun to look at a few more charts to see how soccer and the world unite.

First, let's consider the world's "disinterest" in soccer. This came from a recent New York Times article publishing a study conducted by YouGov. There are a lot of interesting facts in the article, but let's just look at something simple. Like yesterday's CMPB post on GDP, the USA finds itself on top of the charts in another competition with the remaining 31 World Cup challengers - being disinterested in soccer.

See here:


How can this be? Is there too much diversity in sports in America (lacrosse, hockey, wrestling, baseball, football, basketball, rugby, etc etc) for the sport to thrive elsewhere? Does being a wealthier nation mean kids have more money to play more sports that require lots of equipment? Or, is our nation's disinterest more a product of lack of exposure to soccer? Regardless, it's something to think about.

While you are pondering those last few questions, consider one more. Do you want fish to die? Do you like having a plethora of flourishing gill-bearing craniates amongst our lands and seas? Well then, maybe you should start getting involved with soccer, and stay interested! Keep telling your friends the same - until we reach a happy medium of about 27% of our population still being uninterested in the beautiful game. Let the rest of them keep their shoulder pads and mouth-guards. Do it for the fish.

Data taken from the World Bank


Tuesday, June 10, 2014

World Cup Nations and GDP

It's been a while! With moving for summer work and getting excited for the world's biggest sporting event, things have certainly not been at a standstill.

I thought it would be interesting to visualize GDP differences between the thirty-two qualifying teams for this year's World Cup. While the USA is clearly the dominant player in this chart, we can only hope for success in Brazil...

Note that the currency is measured in millions of US dollars. Data were taken from the 2012 United Nations study here.

Monday, May 26, 2014

Uber's lastest valuation and capitalizing on "idle" consumption goods

According to the Wall Street Journal, Uber, the on demand car service start-up, has received bids in the realm of $17 billion over recent weeks. At this time last year, it was valued at $3.5 billion (~385% YTD growth in value).

To the disdain of taxi drivers, Uber created an cheaper "UberX" option, which "connects users with drivers willing to offer rides in their personal vehicles without commercial registration."Similarly, Airbnb facilitates short-term property renting, so travelers can enjoy the comforts of home while still living the tourist lifestyle in the streets of their holiday destinations.

It is interesting to note the number of (currently) successful start-ups which attempt to help individuals utilize "idle" consumption goods for additional income. Historically, some "necessary" consumption goods like households and cars appeared to have a sunk cost when not in use - if a family decides to go on vacation for two weeks, it has been thought that not much could be done to earn marginal income from the home or their personal vehicle. However, thanks to the power of the Internet and the technological revolution, it seems like that may change in the near future. However, while Airbnb and Uber both share the characteristic of utilizing "idle" consumption goods as a means for extra cash, they both also face the challenge of dealing with lobbying against such behavior. See here and here.

Monday, May 12, 2014

Housing Prices Rise in London

I came across an interesting info-graphic via Reddit's /r/dataisbeautiful that describes London house prices per square foot (by postcode) that can be found here. It seems that only homes/flats for sale were considered in the chart; from what I could tell the data do not include rentable property. It would be interesting to see how a similar graphic would compare to what we see with rising prices in the Big Smoke.

With my limited understanding of socioeconomic history in London, it may interest some to observe significant developments on the East End of the city - transitioning from a home to mostly immigrant working class families to a mixed community with a growing banking industry in Canary Wharf.

Some cite foreign money as a primary source for the general rise in housing prices itself, but that likely does not explain the whole story (or even much of it). As published by The Guardian, a recent LSE study discusses the unintended consequences of land-use regulation and discriminatory zoning rules. Laws that limit how high construction companies can build their ceilings effectively limit population growth and crowd out would-be residents to neighborhoods further from the city.

There clearly is not a problem with demand for housing in or around London, but there certainly is an issue with how housing is supplied. Curbing back on "urban development" laws would be a start at making life more affordable in the great global city I was so fortunate to spend half a year in already.

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Markets in Everything: Parking Spot Edition

Via Wired:

"The office of San Francisco’s City Attorney is “evaluating” the app, says Gabriel Zitrin, a spokesman for the department. So far, he says, the city has merely determined that the app is “pretty weird.”

It will be intriguing to see if the developers face any legal opposition in the future, as users are exchanging private goods (in the sense of being excludable and rivalrous) purchased in a public realm (thus, we are only discussing public parking lots).

From the article:

"The rub is that your parking spot isn’t really yours. It’s the city’s. Whereas services like Uber and Airbnb help us make use of things that would otherwise go unused — at least in theory — MonkeyParking merely lets one person grab something ahead of another." 

MonkeyParking is certainly an interesting concept as a means to help those willing to pay more for convenience and time saved finding a parking spot, but it may irk some in its nature of transforming public property into a market - especially when the public property is essentially the good in demand itself.

 I am also looking forward to reading about future Coasean solutions to potential holdout problems.

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Bitcoin regulation hits close to home

Via Wired:

"The Ohio Department of Public Safety didn’t return calls and email messages asking them to explain their thinking, but the agency told the Cleveland Plain Dealer that bitcoin 'cannot be accepted as payment for alcohol in the State of Ohio.” Why, exactly, is unclear. The newspaper quotes Ohio Department of Public Safety Agent Eric Wolf as saying that bitcoin’s value fluctuates too much to be recognized as a currency.' "

Variation in purchasing power sure seems like an odd reason to ban the use of an online currency, especially considering Bitcoin's value has been relatively stable over the past month or so.





Monday, April 21, 2014

More Troubles for Ride-Sharing

Another company, Lyft, has been getting trouble from taxicab commissions and special interests alike. This time, it's going on in St. Louis.

Friday, April 18, 2014

Schadenfreude aus Berlin

There's almost a laughable tone within the context of this City AM article about Berlin's latest ban on Uber, the pseudo-taxi/ride sharing service company.

Saturday, April 5, 2014

The Future of Grocery Shopping?

Amazon has revolutionized the way we shop. It started with books and eventually moved into facilitating transactions for pretty much everything people could want to buy or sell. Recently, Amazon has invested in the video streaming business as well.

In the near future, we could be seeing a completely new way to shop for groceries.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Markets in Everything

Readers of Greg Mankiw's blog or Marginal Revolution have likely come across posts discussing how markets find themselves providing goods or services in pretty much every sector imaginable.

From the WSJ, here's just another product that will be hitting the streets of NYC very soon.


Saturday, March 22, 2014

"When the Scientist Is Also a Philosopher"

Gregory Mankiw had an interesting article published in the New York Times today that presents an idea that I first came across in my intro to macroeconomics course. My professor started off our first lecture by half-jokingly-half-seriously stating that "once you start thinking about economics, it's hard to think about anything else."

In his piece, Mankiw is essentially animating that notion. Economics is not just studying supply-demand equilibrium or forecasting markets; it's really about studying incentives and policies coming from such a wide range of perspectives that would each purportedly increase net social welfare/utility.

One reason why economics is so intellectually satisfying is that the scientist is also a philosopher. In considering policy proposals, research, or theory, it would behoove us all to remember that reality.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Happy Open Borders Day!

Happy Open Borders Day!

In an earlier blogpost, I mentioned a study that found reducing migratory barriers could lead to a 50-150% growth in world GDP. Last fall, I was fortunate enough to spend a semester abroad in London, which I had read about over and over again as a global city that bore fruits from that internationalism. And as time has passed, I have consistently found myself more and more persuaded by what one friend called the "peaceful fundamental right to move," although the current administration may not be as convinced as I am.

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Catherine Rampell on the gender gap in college majors

Over at the Washington Post, Catherine Rampell published an article discussing how women who earned B's in an introductory economics course were less likely to pursue a degree in economics.

Via the Washington Post & Claudia Goldin/Harvard University

Rampell then references Claudia Goldin, an economics professor at Harvard, who found that "Women who received a B in Econ 101, for example, were about half as likely as women who received A’s to stick with the discipline. The same discouragement gradient didn’t exist for men."

How could this be? Goldin suggests the following, as quoted from the article:

“Maybe women just don’t want to get things wrong,” Goldin hypothesized. “They don’t want to walk around being a B-minus student in something. They want to find something they can be an A student in. They want something where the professor will pat them on the back and say ‘You’re doing so well!’ ”
“Guys,” she added, “don’t seem to give two damns.” 

Most of us probably won't be very satisfied with this answer. 

Rampell then transitions into rhetorically asking why - on the other hand - are men who earn B's not dissuaded from pursuing an economics degree. I'm not sure how many of us will buy the argument that "Male students could be more overconfident — effectively, college bros shrug off gentleman’s C’s" either. 

If Rampell releases a follow up to her first article, I'm hoping she mentions another NYT blogpost that discusses a recent study about stereotypes on gender and their impact on careers (and thus, we'd presume, career choice). Unfortunately, the full study is not available without cost, but the blogpost incorporates results from the data which presumably are significant. 

I'd be more convinced by articulate numbers than conjectures on specific gender tendencies, and I'm sure the women who Catherine Rampell is trying to convince to "embrace the B's" would be too.

Saturday, March 8, 2014

Jeffrey Miron's new take on the drug war

From Cato @ Liberty (The Cato Institute's blog):

If you lie down on a water bed, the amount of water does not change; it just moves elsewhere. A similar phenomenon occurs with drug prohibition; targeting one drug reduces its use, but that displaced demand shows up somewhere else. 

This is an incredibly powerful metaphor for the current scenario with America's war on drugs. The rest of his piece can be read here.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Some midterms week relief

For those suffering from the onslaught that is midterms week...

If you've been consistently studying throughout the semester, maybe you don't need to stay up until 3 A.M. cramming every night. Yeah. Let's go with that.


Saturday, March 1, 2014

Don Boudreaux on increasing the minimum wage

From CafeHayek:

Pres. Obama insists that raising the hourly U.S. national minimum wage by 39.3 percent – from its current $7.25 to $10.10 by July 2016 – will have (as described by two members of Mr. Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors, Jason Furman and Betsey Stevenson) “little or no negative effect on employment.”

So here’s a challenge that I (and others) have posed before but believe to be sufficiently penetrating to pose again. This challenge, of course, is posed to supporters of this hike in the minimum wage:
...name some other goods or services for which a government-mandated price hike of 25 percent will not cause fewer units of those goods and services to be purchased. 

Beer? Broccoli? Bulldozers?...Or does low-skilled labor just happen to be the one good or service in the entire world for which a government-mandated 25-percent rise in the price that its buyers must pay for it will not diminish buyers’ willingness to buy it?


This is a great example of a piece written in theoretical terms that can make us think empirically about public policy debates.

Thursday, February 27, 2014

America Doesn't Like Game Theory (at least in game-shows)

Arthur Chu has received some interesting responses to his Jeopardy strategy of seeking out "Daily Doubles" he is not confident of answering correctly, which he does in order to prevent his competition from taking advantage of the free bet questions.



See below:

1. The Washington Post 

2. The Daily Mail

3. Yahoo (which dubbed Chu "The Mad Genius")

The story broke from ABC here...apparently he's from the Cleveland too. Finally, our city can sport a winner -- at least for now.

Mr. Chu, if you ever happen to read this, please just promise not to take your academic and economic talents to South Beach. The Cleveland public school system already has historical problem with brain drain and budget utilization.

Saturday, February 22, 2014

People Like Me

While browsing some papers on AEA's Review (what else would a college student do on a Saturday afternoon?), I came across a particularly relevant one following my recent post on Swiss immigration restrictions. Richard Freeman and Wei Huang's working paper No. 19905, "Collaborating With People Like Me: Ethnic co-authorship within the US" is an attempt to quantify success in research papers in correlation to name-ethnicity.

The two set out and used a program that determined the likely ethnic relationship with a full name, alongside metropolitan statistics to help estimate where people of certain backgrounds live. In case you were wondering, ethnicity was divided into 9 categories: Chinese, Anglo-Saxon/English, European, Indian/Hindi/South Asian, Hispanic/Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Russian, and Vietnamese. Controlling for particular variables (such as resources limiting one's ability to travel and meet other scholars), the study goes on to show that the percent of English names has decreased between 1985-2008, and that papers produced by individuals of the same background had lower "impact factors" and fewer citations than those with mixed ethnic authors.

From the paper itself:

Going beyond homophily, our analysis has also found that two variables that reflect diversity of authors and the knowledge they use in a paper – the number of addresses and the number of references are strongly associated with publishing in a higher impact journal and gaining more citations. A reasonable interpretation of this pattern and that for homophily is that greater diversity and breadth of knowledge of a research team contributes to the quality of the scientific papers that the team produces.

Freeman and Huang's conclusions are perhaps what we might expect in most other settings, but not necessarily academic research - which is what surprised me when first came across the paper. Two heads is better than one, right?

Although we cannot necessarily make synonymous having different ethnic backgrounds with having "diversity in perspective," I believe most people would argue that individuals with different family histories and upbringings would bring about "intellectual diversity" in some context. However, an alternative proposed in this paper could be a dominant factor in the results: those who have the financial capability to travel much more and participate in many conferences with scholars from all over the globe will be more likely to find research partners from varying backgrounds with specialized skill sets.

All things considered, Freeman and Huang's research is one more bit of evidence that has convinced me that globalization is certainly a good thing (or, grrrreat!).

As the man who inspired this blog is attributed of saying, "Where goods do not cross borders, armies will."

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Steps backward for Switzerland and immigration

Switzerland narrowly voted in favor of a referendum that would put "strict limits" on "mass immigration" on February 9th. Accordingly, their government now has three years to create and administer tighter immigration rules - potentially including a quota on how many foreign scientists can be employed at the country’s universities and research institutes. We've already heard about brain drain - so why would Switzerland want to limit the economic benefits foreigners can bring to the country?

From a 2011 research paper by Michael Clemens:

"The gains from eliminating migration barriers dwarf—by an order of a magnitude
or two—the gains from eliminating other types of barriers. For the elimination of
trade policy barriers and capital flow barriers, the estimated gains amount to less
than a few percent of world GDP. For labor mobility barriers, the estimated gains are
often in the range of 50–150 percent of world GDP." [Italics added]

If people cannot be persuaded by data suggesting that a removal of labor mobility barriers could lead to a doubling of the world's GDP, I wonder what it will take for the anti-immigrant paradigm to shift. How do we consider the fundamental human ability to move?

Thanks to a friend (and former colleague) Brett Gall for the link.

Read the full report here:
http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.25.3.83

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

The War on Drugs and Notre Dame

Hi there everyone - and welcome to the CMPB's second official blog post! 

While the today's central topic does not necessarily follow our introduction published a few days ago, the war on drugs is one critical reason Jerry and I wanted to start up a blog. So in a sense, discussing what we have seen in our own lives on the issue might breathe some inspiration for dialogue and deliberation into various posts throughout our time here.

By this time, if you haven't heard of the "failure of the war on drugs," I'm going to guess you haven't heard of Miley Cyrus or twerking - but then again, that might actually be a good thing. Journalists (who offer suffer unintended consequences of the war), economists, non-profits, and even social conservatives like John Boehner and Eric Cantor (as described by HuffPo) have been either advocating for outright legalization of marijuana (and/or other illegal drugs), or have at least committed to cutting some of the federal budget allocated to enforcing the war. 

Marijuana has a vast independent black market - for people who want to use it medically, recreationally, or just sell a product. As Radley Balko has reported, pot and other drugs create incentives for aggressive police behavior and "zero tolerance policies" in schools or other public institutions. If you get caught smoking marijuana, you can lose your job or your property, but if you harass overweight airplane passengers or steal from civilians in another public-official capacity, chances are you won't even be put on leave.

So, how does the drug war influence life at Notre Dame? Take a look at http://norml.org/laws/ - then open a tab for Ohio and Indiana respectively. In Ohio - my home state (and locale of The Ohio State University - Jerry's alma mater) - carrying under 100 grams of simply requires a $150 fine. Since I had no idea what 100g looked like before writing this blog, I came across this photo - assuming it is not photoshopped, you could be walking around with a big tupperware container's worth of marijuana and get off relatively easy in the Buckeye State. Compare that with Indiana - where 30 grams or less could result in a one year incarceration or $5,000 fine.

From Notre Dame's du Lac (student life handbook):

"Students found responsible for possession or use of illegal drugs or controlled substances, the unauthorized possession or misuse of prescription drugs, or the possession of drug paraphernalia may face temporary dismissal from the University. Students found responsible for distribution of illegal drugs and substances, including the illicit redistribution of prescription drugs, may face permanent dismissal from the University."

Smoke alone, get suspended for a semester. Give a joint to a friend, get expelled. Hmm.

I am not sure why ND is so stringy on marijuana but not alcohol, especially considering the stronger negative effects of alcohol on the student body. We receive emails about sexual assaults or students sent to the hospital from stomach poisoning, but when have we heard about a mental or physical assault that involved marijuana? This leads me to believe that Notre Dame simply wants to comply with Indiana's (tough) state laws and is complacent to respect those rules. From an article I wrote last year about ND's marijuana policies:

"This article is not written to persuade others to try marijuana or to sanctify THC; it is meant however to bring Notre Dame’s inconsistent drug policy back to light. Hopefully the student body and student government will continue to work with the administration towards making a more just policy towards marijuana – does one offense really justify a mandatory suspension, if not expulsion?

...As a private institution, Notre Dame has the right to create its own standards and define violations of its own school policies, and the school, of course, has to enforce federal and state law. However, with the rapidly changing climate of marijuana policy, Notre Dame should reconsider the way its strict rules can turn a 20-year-old’s life upside down for making a mistake in the eyes of the law and make its policies more equal across the board."

It pains me to imagine a scenario where one of my friends might end up in one of these situations. I don't know all of their personal habits and certainly wouldn't judge them if I did. However, kicking out students from Our Lady's University because they sat on a couch smoking a plant seems like a ludicrous way to spend resources when there are seemingly thousands of better things the police could be doing with their time. It's comforting to know that times are changing amongst the states and federal government are relaxing their policies against nonviolent drug users. Some politicians such as Rand Paul are seeking to remove mandatory minimum sentences which disproportionately affect minorities and lower income families.

If Notre Dame wants to teach peace and simultaneously become a "top research university for the 21st century," it should definitely seek out policies that will help those who need it with their addictions. However, it need not enforce its harsh penalties for marijuana use and actively seek to vilify those who choose to do so - especially when the legal framework that influenced du Lac is transforming so rapidly. Instead, why not start educating students about the abusive drinking that goes on before Thursday nights at Finny's? Why not enlighten freshman girls who think it's a good idea to take way too many shots of Kamchatka before going to a football game? 

There are many great reasons to go to the University of Notre Dame. It is one of the top ranked universities in the country year after year, has the best college cathedral in the states, FOOTBALL, has tons of research opportunities, boasts intramural sports from soccer to battleship (look it up, trust me), and has one of the most renowned alumni networks in the country. This is a truly special university and has so many reasons to be proud of its fabled history; I hope we will be able to look back and see Notre Dame being more positive with its response to marijuana use too.

Have you experienced any of the ancillary consequences of the drug war? How do you see the states changing their laws in response to social pressure in the next 10 years? 20? 50? What's the best way to deal with this issue? Is it even a problem? Should smoking marijuana be stigmatized as it has been? Is there a role for government (or private institution's) paternalism? If so, who decides, and how do we determine if it is a just decision?

There are so many questions to ask and each one must be carefully analyzed individually. It is incredibly hard to quantify how people have suffered from the drug war (and perhaps, how we have collectively benefited) - but from what I've seen firsthand at Notre Dame, I am not at all convinced that the war has brought about positive value equal to what the nation has spent on enforcing it. That number, sadly, is likely not even close at all.




 





Saturday, February 15, 2014

Current plans and goals

Hello world! And welcome to the Candlestick Makers' Petition Blog!

Without restraining ourselves from potential growth in time, the team behind CMPB would like to delineate our current plans for discussion along with contemplating some goals for the future. This blog's objective is to discuss relevant issues in the economic, financial, and political realms with an empirical perspective. We hope to provide provocative social commentary on top of analyzing unintended consequences in these spheres for the reader's (and our own) benefit, pleasure, and as an attempt to better understand the world.

For those unfamiliar with the story of the candlestick maker and his petition, I'd highly encourage you to read the whole thing here. Written by Frédéric Bastiat in 1845, "The Candlestick Makers' Petition" is one parable within Economic Sophisms which mocks French lobbyists seeking to block out the sun - in addition to forming protectionist policies to limit foreign competitors. In this satire, Bastiat shows his true colors as not only an early advocate of free-trade or as a critic of lobbying, but most clearly as a wonderful artist with the pen.

History has shown how persuasion can often bear more fruit in promoting human progress than violence, and in the marketplace of ideas Bastiat surely has quite an influence.  A libertarian-leaning Congressman - who also campaigned for president in 1988, 2008, and 2012 -  recently reintroduced Victor Hugo's famous verse "No one can resist an idea whose time has come" back into the public sphere. Frédéric Bastiat certainly bought into that belief while he was boldly writing The Law, critiquing not only contemporary merchants trying to gain a legislative advantage in the market, but also the members of the French Parliament who considered facilitating such action with the law's monopoly of force. We are convinced by many of Bastiat's arguments and the power of putting ideas out in the open for debate and discussion - and we hope further discourse will provide a platform for learning more about humanity and raising the quality of life for all people across the world.

What better time to start up a blog than during ISFLC 2014?

Until next time!